Monday, April 23, 2007

Al Gore’s Convenient Lies (for the prize)

Al Gore’s Convenient Lies (for the prize)

Al Gore, co-winner of the Nobel Peace Prize propagates the same deceptions told for years by the global warming movement to prove a direct link between CO2 and temperature change. They primarily do this by picking and choosing data from the GISP (Greenland Ice Sheet Project) and the Vostok (Antarctica) ice core samples.

The GISP and Vostok ice core samples are the two most important because they have been study the most and go the furthest back in time. More important there is one from the northern hemisphere (GISP) and the other from the southern hemisphere (Vostok) allowing us to directly compare data between both hemisphere.

When you consider all of the data from these ice core samples by directly comparing the data what is clear is it is normal for the earth’s temperature to vary as much as 3 degrees Celsius over just a couple of 100 years. In other words global warming and cooling are the norm.

(As a personal note my guess is temperature change is very important for the health of the environment but I have no proof to date)

Al Gore and others deceive us by presenting just the last 800 years of the GISP temperature data but no more. Now they do make a convincing argument based on the fact temperature has been constant in the northern hemisphere for the last 800 years with a .5 degree Celsius temperature rise in the last 100 years which corresponds to the fact CO2 has risen from 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million in those same 100 years. They concluded this proves global warming because the temperature and CO2 graphs match over the last 800 years. The problem is as you will see below the match only occurred in the northern hemisphere and for a short 800 years.

Below in figure 1 is the GISP temperature data (red line) dating back 5000 years, and figure 2 takes it out 20,000 years. You will notice Al Gore is correct when he says this temperature was constant for about 800 years in the northern hemisphere with an up swing the last 100 years, but notice Al Gore does not explain or even mention the same GISP data shows the temperature was 1 degree Celsius higher 1000 years ago, 2 degree Celsius higher 2000 years ago, and 3 degree Celsius higher 3300 years ago, all this despite the claim CO2 levels have stayed at 280 parts per million for 10,000s of years. Al Gore never shows these previous temperature rises for very good reasons, but Al Gore and others are simply deceiving you.

Figure 1 (The red line is GISP and the blue line is Vostok, on the left the scale is from -2 Celsius to +3 Celsius, the bottom scale is from today to 5000 years ago in 1000 year blocks)

Figure 2 (This is a continuation of figure 1 from 5000 years ago to 20,000 years ago)

If you consider the entire GISP graph (red line) what strikes you is the last 800 years have not been the norm but instead have been very unusual because the norm over the last 10,000 years has been a much higher temperature that constantly oscillates over a 2+ degrees Celsius range. What strikes you is the current warming trend in the northern hemisphere seems to be 600 years over due not caused by man made activity.

Al Gore and others simply ignore all of the data beyond 800 years in the GISP graph because it does not support their global warming theory and political goals.

Another important fact Al Gore and others ignore is the data from the Vostok graph (blue line) where over the last 800 years the southern hemisphere has experienced three major temperature swings varying as much as 3 degrees Celsius despite CO2 being constant. How can it be possible that a man made CO2 rise only affects the northern hemisphere’s temperature but not the southern hemisphere?

As you look at both GISP and Vostok overlaid on the same time scale as in figure 1 and 2 you will notice is the earth is not “all warming’ or “all cooling”. Matter of fact you will notice that when the temperature is headed in one direction in one hemisphere it is usually headed in the opposite direction in the other hemisphere, and this is the case today as the southern ice cap has grown by 8% since 1978. However Al Gore and others ignore these points.

Temperature variation is just not seen between the northern and southern hemisphere it is also seen within a smaller geographic areas over shorter time scales. For example the NOAA has documented in the last 20 years parts of the USA have warmed while others have cooled.

Al Gore and others simply ignore the facts and unanswered questions as they try to convince you man made CO2 levels are responsible for the warming the entire planet and therefore must be regulated by the government.

As a side point these graphs can only tell us what was going on at that particular location at any time. It is very difficult it is to calculate the world’s average temperature because to do so you need data from every point on earth at every layer within the atmosphere, but all we have today are few ice core samples and a couple 100 years of surface temperature data that vary greatly. We have no way to calculate the earth’s average temperature 800 years ago much less yesterday’s average temperature. However recent satellites are beginning to help.

The other graph Al Gore and others offer as fact to prove global warming is the entire Vostok ice core samples, all 400,000 years of it as seen below in figure 3. (However, they conveniently ignore the last 800 years of it as seen above) This graph shows the temperature in blue and CO2 levels in red. In his movie Al Gore claims you would have to be stupid not to see these two graphs prove CO2 and temperature are related as they fit perfectly together proving global warming, but this is simply another simple minded deception.

Figure 3

(The blue line is temperature and the red line CO2 levels, the left hand scales is from -8 Celsius to -0 Celsius, the bottom is from 0 to 400,000 years in 50,000 years blocks, the right hand side is CO2 levels from 220 ppm to 360 ppm)

If you look close at this graph you see four major ice ages over 400,000 years in 100,000 year cycles which were not caused by CO2 as Al Gore implies but caused by changes in the earth orbit from a circler orbit to an elliptical orbit that occurs every 100,000 years.

Figure 3 has created a lot of debate in global warming circles as groups like come to Gore’s defense. They admit each time an ice age has ended the temperature does lead CO2 by about 800 years but after that they believe CO2 amplifies the effects of the raising temperature supporting Al Gore. However this is just a theory they are unable to prove.

You may wonder what happens to the temperature in the lab environment if you were to increase CO2 by 100 parts per million in a fish tank? Now many believe doing lab tests to prove global warming is junk science because the earth is not an enclosed fish tank but if you run this simple experiment seen here at you can prove if you create a layer of CO2 in a fish tank it will drive the temperature up a couple of degrees Celsius. In other words a rise in CO2 can raise the temperature in the lab but the problem is you have to increase the CO2 levels by many hundred times to see an effect in the lab.

Now, if you want to run the above experiment that reflects the 100 parts per million increases of CO2 seen in the environment today simply exhale about 10 cubic inches of air into a 4000 cubic inch fish tank to get proximally a 100 parts per million increase of CO2 in the fish tank. Note, as you exhale you produce about 4% CO2 which is 40,000 parts per million. However this experiment will not show noticeable temperature increase in the fish tank. So, for to defend Al Gore on figure 3 by speculating after the first 800 years a small increase in CO2 amplifies the earth’s temperature is just that, pure speculation.

The fact is there is nothing to prove a 100 parts per million increase in CO2 level drives temperature change as Al Gores and others imply. These movies and documentaries simply pick and choose from these ice core data to make it appear so.

Another interesting point not mentioned in Al Gore’s movie is the inaccuracy of CO2 levels measurements in ice cores samples as seen in graph 4. Now, you would expect CO2 measurements from ice cores from around the world would be relatively equal in CO2 levels for the same time frame, but this is not the case.

The below figure 4 was presented to the US Senate in 2004 by Professor Jaworoski. Notice how wildly the CO2 measurements from these samples vary from 550ppm to 250ppm during the same time period. Now we know this is impossible because CO2 gas is consistent through out the atmosphere.

Figure 4
(vertical scale on the right side is CO2 from 250 ppm to 550 ppm and the horizontal scale on the bottom is from the years 1800 to 1960)

To resolve this variation in CO2 measurements scientist simply average all the data together but this does not produces an accurate answer. Notice the bullet point underneath the graph mentions one method of averaging this data together finds CO2 at 292ppm while another method finds the average at 335ppm.

The other thing to consider about past CO2 level measurements is the accuracy as you go back further in time. There is little understanding of what happens to these ice samples that are 10,000s or 100,000s of years old where the forces of time, pressure, temperature, chlorine, acid, etc have had long term effects contaminating these samples.

The global warming advocates constantly tell us CO2 has remained constant at 280 ppm for thousands of years but this point is very debatable.

My last point which is either not mentioned or marginalized by global warming advocates is the suns effect on the earth’s temperature.

As seen above the earth’s orbit determines major ice ages but consider figure 5 below that shows the suns output can increase as much as 30 watts per square meter in just 5000 years! There seems to be more and more evidence the sun is the primary driving force behind global warming for example we now see today both Mars and Earth experiencing a warming trend.

Figure 5 goes on to show the suns output may directly affect the temperature seen in the GISP ice core sample over the last 40,000 years. (The blue line is the GISP temperature chart). However like all of this much more study is needed because this does not explain why the Vostok temperature record does not follow the sun’s output or the GISP temperature chart.

Figure 5
Al Gore and others today marginalize the effects of the sun as the primary force behind today’s temperature change because they are unable to regulate the sun.

Worse of all Al Gore is simply incorrect when he says the science in his movie is indisputable because we have it all figured out. This misguided belief creates a climate where global warming cannot be questioned and the truths of global warming are not pursued or ignored.

Unfortunately Al Gore is legitimized by receiving a Nobel Peace prize as these deceptions propagate further at the cost of truth and science. I say shame on those that gave Al Gore this prize as the propagate global warming deceptions.
Oct 14th 2007